Friday, April 15, 2016

787 production up to 12 per month. Boeing delivers 30 787s in 1st quarter, set to deliver 400th Dreamliner this month. 1st 787-10 wing set spotted.



Last month Boeing was able to squeeze out one more delivery and turn over 13 787s to customers and end the quarter with 30 deliveries which is par given the production rate.  In reality it could have been 32 if it were not for the two British Airways 787-9s that are delayed due to continuing production issues at Zodiac.  Still Boeing turned in a very respectable quarter and it will be interesting to hear how they did with the deferred production costs over the past three months when they have the earnings call in next week. Air Canada saw their fleet of 787s increase measurably as they took ownership of 3 787-9s.  Virgin took 2 -9s including one that was damaged by an engine fire some months ago and Air Europa received their first 787-8.

For April, Boeing is planning 10 deliveries which will include the 100th 787-9 which is going to Air Canada and the 400th 787 which should be delivered to Etihad Airways.  However, it seems that Boeing will be breaking rate and going to 12 787 per month this month based on the load dates for both North Charleston and Everett.  For this month it appears that Everett will start final assembly on 7 787s and Charleston will start work on 5.  Interestingly enough the assembly build time at Everett looks to decrease to 18 to 19 days from about 22 to 24 days.  At Charleston build time has decreased to 25 to 26 days from 30 to 31 days.

Boeing is also now phasing out positions 5 and 6 inside the Charleston final assembly building and using it to park 787s that have completed final assembly.  The North Charleston line now mimicks the Everett line.

Boeing continues work on the early build 787s as they have now moved one more aircraft from runway storage to the EMC.  ZD003 (LN10) was moved this month to the EMC to start the re-work and rebuild process before being delivered to Ethiopian Airlines next year.  Boeing still has three more 787s that they need to start re-work and change incorporation work on including two test flight aircraft but most of the early builds are now well into the change incorporation process.  ZD004 (LN12) also for Ethiopian has completed the change incorporation work and will making its first flight soon in preparation for delivery tentatively in June.  however, the ongoing issue with the US Export-Import Bank may delay delivery.


787-9 & 787-10 Wings
The wing set for the first 787-10 behind a set of wings for a 787-9.  Photo by Chris Edwards of Woody's Aeroimages.
On the brighter side, photographer Chris Edwards of Woody's Aeroimages caught a picture of the wing set for the first 787-10 sitting at the Dreamlifter Operations Center in Everett.  Apparently there is no storage space at Charleston so the wings are staying in Everett until production on ZC001 (LN528) starts final assembly later this year.

Orders have been slow in coming. I am anticipating that we'll see a few 787 orders at Farnborough including the much anticipated Emirates order for 100 787s (split between the -9 and -10).

At Risk Orders

Given the large backlog of 787 orders, are there orders that are "at risk" of being cancelled.  I take a look at what orders may be at risk for Boeing by model.  I'm not looking at potential conversions but those orders that may be cancelled outright.

Let's start with the 787-8.

Boeing has reduced this backlog to about 140 -8s that have to be delivered.

Customer NameCustomer CodeModelOrderedDeliveredUndeliveredScheduled for Final Assembly
AerCapILF787-8262330
AeroflotARO787-8180180
Air AstanaAKZ787-83030
Air AustralAUX787-82022
Air EuropaARE787-88175
Air IndiaAIN787-8272162
Air NiuginiNIU787-81010
ALAFCOFCO787-88080
All Nippon AirwaysANA787-8363511
American AirlinesAAL787-8201554
AviancaAVI787-815784
Biman Bangladesh AirlinesBNG787-84040
British AirwaysBAB787-89810
Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)BBJ787-88440
Delta Air LinesDAL787-8180180
Ethiopian AirlinesETH787-8161066
IcelandairICE787-81010
Japan AirlinesJAL787-8252322
LAN AirlinesLAN787-8141040
LOT Polish AirlinesLOT787-88620
Oman AirOMR787-86240
PrivatAirPTS787-82110
Qatar AirwaysQTR787-8302733
Republic of IraqIRG787-8100100
Royal Air MarocRAM787-85233
Royal Brunei AirlinesRBA787-85410
Royal JordanianRJA787-87162
Scoot Pte LtdNPD787-810462
Uzbekistan AirwaysUZB787-82022
14038

Of these I highlighted in red the ones that I view as orders that are at risk of being cancelled.  Aeroflot, Delta and Iraqi Airways are the obvious candidates.  Aeroflot has stated that they intend to cancel their 787 order but then surprisingly converted 4 787-8 into the 787-9.  Despite this conversion I still view them as at risk to be cancelled due to the political and economic instability that exists in Russia today.  Delta took over Northwest's 787 order and has repeatedly pushed back first delivery.  This order is even more in doubt when the airline committed to the A350 last year.  This order is certainly a candidate to be cancelled or to be converted into another aircraft type.  With the political instability as well as the low price of oil, the order by Iraqi Airways (through the government of Iraq) is certainly at risk of being cancelled even though years of war, sanctions and neglect has hurt their fleet and their operations.  They do need new aircraft but I don't see how this order can be filled given the political and economic distress of the country. PrivatAir had trouble taking delivery of their first 787-8 and apparently this aircraft is on the market to be sold.  Biman Bangladesh placed their 787-8 order in 2008 for delivery in 2017 but I have not seen the airline pop up on the assembly firing order as of yet.  LOT Polish already has 6 787s but has not determined when or if they will take the remaining 2 on order.

Customer NameCustomer CodeModelOrderedDeliveredUndeliveredScheduled for Final Assembly
AerCapILF787-94811379
AeroflotARO787-94040
AeromexicoAMX787-96064
Air CanadaACN787-92992010
Air ChinaBEJ787-9150158
Air EuropaARE787-9140140
Air France-KLM GroupFXN787-9190192
Air New ZealandANZ787-912663
Air Tahiti NuiTHT787-92020
ALCHAZ787-9160163
All Nippon AirwaysANA787-944113312
American AirlinesAAL787-9220226
Arik AirAKD787-97070
Aviation Capital GroupCGP787-95050
AvolonVLN787-96060
British AirwaysBAB787-92171411
Business Jet / VIP Customer(s)BBJ787-92112
CIT Leasing CorporationTCI787-9160163
El AlELY787-93030
Etihad AirwaysETI787-9415368
Gulf AirGUL787-9160160
Hainan AirlinesHNA787-9240248
Japan AirlinesJAL787-9203175
Jet AirwaysJPL787-9100100
Korean AirKAL787-9100102
LAN AirlinesLAN787-912572
MG AviationNKA787-94222
Norwegian Air International LtdNSB787-9190190
QANTASQAN787-98080
Saudi Arabian AirlinesSVA787-98355
Scoot Pte LtdNPD787-910640
TUI Travel PLCBRI/TTP787-93032
Unidentified Customer(s)UNK787-9130130
Unidentified Customer(s)UNK787-94040
Unidentified Customer(s)UNK787-92021
Unidentified Customer(s)UNK787-92021
United Air LinesUAL/CAL787-9231674
Vietnam AirlinesVIE787-98444
Virgin Atlantic AirwaysVAA787-9171163
Xiamen AirlinesXIA787-96063
Total451123

The 787-9 is proving to be the most popular 787 variant accounting for almost half the 787 order book.  over the past few years there have been a few conversions to the -9 from the -8 thus I see very few at risk orders on this book.  Still Aeroflot which converted 4 -8 into -9s around the time that they said that the carrier was cancelling the 787 order is certainly at risk for the same reasons that the -8 order is at risk. Arik Air placed their order for the -9 in 2007...9 years ago and the most latest information is that they were to be delivered this year.  Given that Arik had also ordered the 747-8 (2) and several 737 (10), they've only taken delivery of 2 737s.

787 Full Production Table

17 comments:

Unknown said...

Una lástima lo que ocurre con las empresas americanas. En Europa prácticamente obligan a comprar Airbus y en Usa las aerolíneas le dan la espalda a Boeing claro ejemplo American Airlines que ya debería de cambiar el nombre a francés Airlines.

greg smith said...

Why is air tahiti in white?

Traveling Man said...

Norwegian Air has finally been cleared to operate in the US. We'll see if cheaper trans Atlantic flights follow, as promised.

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/2016/04/18/commentary-dot-clears-norwegian-irish-subsidiary/

David Cummings said...

does anyone has any info on why Kenya 5Y-KZJ is in storage rumour say it's off to Oman Air

Bob Franklin UK said...

I have heard in the UK that the problem with the BA seats is down to BA ! They had feed back from customers about some of the seats and have got Zodiac to modify them, so when the new seats were available they were installed in the next frame that had not had its seats installed yet. The two in storage will then have the seats replaced.

4330462c-e338-11e3-9abe-000bcdcb2996 said...

Anybody know why Line 97 has been stored since March by ANA?

David Cummings said...

JA817a 788 and Ja877a 789 are both stored at Haneda without engines I have asked the question to the airline but not yet had a reply

David Cummings said...

sorry meant JA819A and Ja877a

John N Mitchell said...

I would guess that the JAL problem is closely related to the FAA Urgent fix for some of the GE engines.
https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=faa%20boeing%20787

David Cummings said...

these are ANA not JAL aircraft which have rolls royce engines so that's that possibility ruled out

John N Mitchell said...

I blew that one!

David Cummings said...

well I got a response from ANA. not quite what I asked :
Dear Mr Cummings

Thank you for your email dated 23rd April 2016.

In response to your query, we understand that you
may be concerned about the recent reports on the
engines manufactured for Boeing 787 aircrafts.
However, please rest assured that the engines
used for Boeing 787 aircrafts operated by ANA are
manufactured by Rolls Royce, and thus is not affected.

The following link contains specs of our Boeing 787
aircraft, and the Trent engine series is manufactured
by Rolls Royce

Hiromichi Notake said...

ANA's 787-9 will be registrated as follows:

ZB418(L/N571) will be JA892A.

Traveling Man said...

Interesting article:

http://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-stock-falls-as-analyst-says-787-profit-goal-unachievable/

Vincent Escalas said...

What happened to LN 6 to 9?

kschendel said...

It's all in the delivered list. 7-9 went to ANA and 6 to the Mexican Air Force (presidential jet, I believe).

4330462c-e338-11e3-9abe-000bcdcb2996 said...

Here it is May 10th and no April recap? I know it has become more routine as they are rolling out approx. 12 per month, but I like your recaps and predictions for the upcoming months.