Friday, December 11, 2015

Boeing exceeds 2015 787 delivery forecast by delivering 14 787 in November. Aims for 9 to 10 deliveries in December



November 2015 results

Boeing had a pretty good delivery month for the 787 as they delivered 14 aircraft: 6 787-8 and 8 787-9.  As of November 30th, Boeing has delivered 126 787s: 68 787-8 and 58 787-9s thus exceeding its 787 delivery guidance for 2015.  Total program deliveries stand at 354 as of November 30, 2015. The 14 787s delivered included customers such as KLM's 1st 787-9, 2 airplanes each for Qatar (787-8) and British Airways (787-9) and 3 787-9s for United.

November also saw the firming of Eva Airway's order for 18 787-10 (+6 options) which is a major boost for that model.  Thus far Boeing has booked 97 gross orders for the 787, 71 net orders. Ethiopian also has said that they have ordered 2 787-9s for 2017 delivery though those airplanes have not showed up on Boeing's order and delivery site.

787-10 Rendering Courtesy of The Boeing Company
Speaking of the 787-10, Boeing announce that they have completed the detailed design of the 787-10 which is a simple stretch of the 787-9.  The two aircraft will be 95% common thus making the aircraft a low risk proposition.  Expect final assembly to start in a years time followed by first flight in the late 1st quarter or early 2nd quarter of 2017 and delivery in 2018.  Boeing is expected to have 3 test airplanes all of which will be re-worked and delivered to customers in 2018.


December Delivery and Production

As Boeing heads into the last few weeks of 2015, it appears that they are aiming to get their remaining deliveries for the 787 completed by December 23rd.  According to the current delivery schedule, Boeing will deliver 7 787s (2 have already been delivered as of Dec. 11th) between Dec. 15th and Dec. 23.  Deliveries include 2 787-9 to Virgin as well as 787-9s to Vietnam Airlines, LAN, and Air Canada.  American and Scoot will each get one 787-8.  Boeing has already delivered a 787-8 to Avianca and a 787-9 to KLM.

Boeing has rolled out 116 787 though the end of November and started final assembly on 115 thus putting them on track to exceed the 10/month production rate.  Through Dec. 11th, Boeing has rolled out 121 787s and started final assembly on 119 Dreamliners.  I believe that we should see a tapering of production activities just prior to Christmas that will last until just after New Years.

Moving Re-Work and Change Incorporation Activities?

So according to sources but as of yet unconfirmed, Boeing will not be sending anymore 787 to the EMC to finish re-work prior to delivery.  That work will now take place in a couple different locations around Everett including 40-24 final assembly and the two spots behind the Everett Delivery Center (stalls 114 and 115).

The reason for this switch is to allow Boeing to concentrate on recovering the KC-46A tanker program which has fallen behind schedule much like the 787 had done during it's early gestation period.  It appears that Boeing will send KC-46As to the EMC to finish work and to try and recover the schedule will maintaining the test flight program which is currently on going.

Boeing has 11 early build 787-8s that need to be re-worked to certification standards.  8 of those 11 airplanes have customers assigned to them as of today but have delivery dates stretching out to 2018.

The relocation of the 787 re-work raises questions that I frankly don't have the answers to such as:
1) Will the relocation to 40-24 delay the start final assembly of early 777X or will it interfere in the reconfiguration work that will needed to be done in order to support early 777X final assembly?
2) What work will take place inside 40-24 as oppose to the outdoor stalls 114 and 115?
3) Will the relocation of these activities slow down the rate of completed re-worked 787s?
4) Will this change necessitate the continued use of the runway storage area at Paine Field?

Clearly since there is a plan for most of the remaining early build airplanes (we must not forget that 3 787-10 test airplanes will have to also be re-worked in 2018), Boeing is now planning to free up facilities for 777X and KC-46A work as work on the early build 787s will start to wind down.


787 Full Production Table

17 comments:

HK Expat said...

Hey Uresh. As far as i know, the 2x 789s for Ethiopian are in Boeing's O&D table under Aercap GE.
Cheers
A

greg smith said...

I see saudi's first 787 in the EMC a few weeks...
Any update on that ?

Uresh said...

It rolled out of paint just last night= to the flightline.

IDontTrustSideSticks said...

I check this blog 3 times a day, sometimes even after midnight, with hope that maybe you gave an update on "something". THANK YOU for all the friggin WORK you put in to keep the Dreamliner fans PROPERLY informed. I actually wish you had a team of people doing one of these blogs for EVERY Boeing aircraft.

IDontTrustSideSticks said...

I check this blog 3 times a day, sometimes even after midnight, with hope that maybe you gave an update on "something". THANK YOU for all the friggin WORK you put in to keep the Dreamliner fans PROPERLY informed. I actually wish you had a team of people doing one of these blogs for EVERY Boeing aircraft.

b767300er said...

Hi uresh,

Do you also have any sight on the 777 program?
Want to know the L/N for the MSN/CN number 44555

Uresh said...

Sorry, I don't.

Vab Andleigh said...

"Boeing will not be sending anymore 787 to finish re-work prior to delivery."

Uresh, does this mean Boeing intends to finish all of the rework on the 787's currently in the EMC before rolling them out? After all, roughly half of the remaining early builds are planned for delivery next summer according to your database

Uresh said...

Small error on my part. They will continue to do re-work at the EMC until the end of the first quarter of next year.

Jamie Hogan said...

Some of this year's deliveries were early builds; but does this delivery rate mean they are at more than 10 units/month already?

Awesomely informative site you have!

1coolguy1 said...

Of the five (5) in Production Testing, two are in paint shops in Oregon and Louisiana, while none are in Everett. Why is that?

steven pappas said...

Uresh, still waiting for a new post, its been about 3 weeks and no updates as to the end of year results. I enjoy your columns.

larmeyers said...

Fascinating tweet and link by Jon Ostrower regarding a stored 788. Check out the photo on the link. This is LN315 delivered 9/18/15.

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/683852180781162496

I wonder what the story is?

agincourt said...

By tomorrow every plane in construction will be a 787-9

Nick Johnson said...

In your spreadsheet of Deliveries by Customer, United shows 5 remaining -9's on order, and 6 scheduled for delivery. If that's an error, no need to print this. Thanks for your work on this blog.

Uresh said...

Nick,

According to Boeing's latest firing order they have 6 more 787-9 to build for United even though they really have 5 more to deliver to UA per their order. Either Boeing has to update their firing order or the order book. Once there's more clarification on that, I will update the spreadsheet. Thanks!

Traveling Man said...

Looking at your chart it appears Boeing is finally on the way to getting those terrible teens out the door!