Monday, December 4, 2017

Tracking 787 LoI, MoU and Options

Boeing continues to grow the 787 order book though it does appear that the 787 book-to-bill for 2017 will be over one again, the company did make good progress with orders this year particularly in the second half which will set them nicely for 2018.

These un-firmed orders (letter of intents or memorandum of understanding) orders aren't official until the detailed contract with customers are negotiated and signed.  These unbooked orders along with options represents a significant chunk of the firm order book if and when they are finalized.

I'm attempting to quantify the MoUs, LoIs, and Options for the 787 and have started putting together a table which is far from complete.

CustomerModelUnfirmed Ordered (LoI or MoU)Options (Any Model)Options - 787-8Options - 787-9Options - 787-10Total
American Airlines5858
Eva Air787-1066
Garuda Indonesia787-93030
Malaysia Airlines88
Turkish Airlines787-9202040
United Airlines5050
Virgin Atlantic Airlines787-944

If there is any information that is missing, please shoot me a message and I'll add it to the table.  You can also view this table as part of the 787 Spreadsheets that I maintain.

Friday, December 1, 2017

787 Monthly Report for November 2017

Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett133
To be assembled in Charleston103
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Pre-Flight Prep13
Production Testing3
Non Customer Flight Tests3
Ready for Delivery2

Boeing delivered 11 787s during the month of November as it prepares for the usual Holiday slowdown at the end of December and the push to make as many deliveries as possible. Boeing delivered 9 787-9 and 2 787-8.  For the year total deliveries are 124 with 26 787-8 and 98 787-9 being turned over to customers.  Total 787 program deliveries stand at 624, 350 787-8 and 274 787-9.

The notable deliveries made in November includes Air New Zealand's penultimate 787-9.  They were the launch customer for the -9 and received the 1st 787-9 on June 30, 2014.  The other very notable but quiet (very quiet) delivery made was LN 19.  This is the last of the early build and over weight 787-8s that languished around Everett since it was first assembled in March 2010.  That is well over seven and a half years and is easily the 787 that took the longest between final assembly and delivery.   Even after completing all the necessary modifications and re-work lucky LN 19 still sat around Everett for a few more  months than needed for some unknown reason.  The aircraft spent 94 days between first flight and final delivery...almost 3 months which is very unusual.  It is now going through modifications for it's custom made interior to be installed at Greenpoint Technologies at Moses Lake, WA.  This delivery was made very quietly and was symbolic of the unease Boeing had with these overweight airplanes littering the flight lines and runways of Everett over the last 10 years.  Boeing is glad to be rid of them.  LN 4 and LN 5 still have to be disposed of.  LN 5 is being taken apart and some parts will probably be recycled for you as replacement or spare parts for other Dreamliners.  LN 4 just completed testing for the Trent 1000 TEN engine upgrade program and is currently in storage at Boeing Field.  Its final disposition still has to be decided upon.

Production of new 787s saw 12 787s being rolled out from the two production facilities (7 at Everett and 5 at Charleston).  Three of those 787s began assembly in November at Everett.  Build time at Everett is about 14 to 17 days and at Charleston it is about 22 to 29 days.  For December, Boeing may not start work on any new production 787 at Charleston due to the upcoming Holidays in the last full week of December.  Right now (and this is subject to modification), the next 787 loading into position 1 won't occur until January 4th.  Boeing will still continue to push out 787s onto the flight line and prepare them for B1, C1 flights and delivery in December  but because of the lower rate and longer build times, it appears that they're holding off on the start of final assembly of any new 787s in December.  The last 787 that was loaded into position 1 in 88-30 is ZC004 (LN 656, 9V-SCA) which is the first 787-10 that will be delivered to launch customer Singapore Airlines. Also don't expect any 787 work (flights, assembly work, and deliveries) after December 22nd when most of Boeing will be off for the Holidays.

For deliveries in December, expect Boeing will delivery 12 787s (all 787-9). If Boeing holds to this schedule then total deliveries for the year will be 136. So far 6 of the 12 787-9s have flown their B1 flights and of those 2 have flown their customer flights and are ready for delivery.  Boeing will need to get on the ball rather quickly if they're to deliver all 12 by December 20th though I assume that a skeleton crew can get them ready during the Holiday week if they have to push out the delivery timeline for some of these airplanes.  A couple of these airplanes have yet to be painted so we'll see how Boeing will plan these deliveries for December.These 136 deliveries also includes 5 early build 787-8s thus the actual production rate for the year will be about 131 which is far lower than the 12/month rate that Boeing initiated last year.  The lower production rate is attributable to the introduction of the 787-10 into the production system which displaced some customer Dreamliner production.  Boeing was being very cautious when inserting a new airplane into the production system to the point that several weeks were built into the production schedule at Charleston in order to protect the production of 787s that followed the -10.  Everett took up some slack but they couldn't take up all of it.  There will be a more in depth discussion about 2018 expectations in late December including proposed deliveries.

The 787-10 is getting closer to finishing up flight testing and certification activities.  The three test flight airplanes have booked a solid month of flight test activities out of Boeing Field and Charleston.  In November the 3 aircraft test fleet booked the second largest amount of flight hours since flight tests started at the end of March with almost 169 flight hours flown. This is after a very quiet month of flight activity in October which I assume was primarily dedicated to ground tests.  November was good to the 787-10 for other reasons.  It marked the appearance of ZC002 at the Dubai Airshow which opened with a huge order for the 787-10 by Emirates.  The order which is expected to be finalized sometime in the first quarter of 2018 is for 40 firm 787-10 and 60 787 options. Of course by the time this is firmed up  the number of firm orders and sub types ordered could change as Emirates is reportedly interested in the 787-9 as well.  As I said in the post announcing the order...this was a tremendous blow to Airbus and the A350/A380 programs which was hoping for a splashy deals for either of those aircraft from Emirates. Frankly the 787-10 needed this huge shot in the arm as orders for the aircraft were non existent since the aircraft was launched because of the widebody order slump of 2016-2017.  This also supports Boeing's decision to go to a 14/month production rate that will take affect in 2019.

In the meantime check out the 787 Spreadsheets by clicking the extra large link below: